LIFE-SAVER. A medical worker prepares to inject the Covid-19 vaccine at the Peñaranda city hall in Nueva Ecija on Monday (Jan 24, 2022). Booster shots are also given with senior citizens being prioritized. (MNS photo)

MANILA, Jan 25 (Mabuhay) — The reproduction number in the National Capital Region has went down to 0.91, which OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said was a confirmation of the downward trend not just in new COVID-19 cases but in active cases as well.

In a tweet on Monday night, David noted that the decrease of less than 1, recorded on January 21, 2022, was the first time since December 23, 2021.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David said that the reproduction number in NCR went up to 6 on January 2.

“While this is good news and confirms a downward trend not just in new cases but also in active cases, we have to continue [to] follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend,” he said.

The decrease below 1 is correlated with the “decrease in active cases, rather than a decrease in new cases,” he emphasized.

“This means that active cases may still increase even as new cases have started to decrease, because active cases are a cumulative lf new cases less recoveries and deaths,” he added.

David also explained that he has been using a time varying reproduction number Rt since 2020 to model the effects of controls and interventions on the transmission of the COVID-19.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday also said that the classification of Philippines and Metro Manila was downgraded to “high risk” from critical risk for COVID-19 but the average daily attack rate (ADAR) remains high.

He noted that the two week growth rate in Metro Manila went down from 7,225% to 65% but its ADAR is at 85.46%.

NCR Plus areas are showing case decline while cases in the rest of Luzon areas are plateauing, Duque added.

On Monday, January 24, the Philippines reported 24,938 new COVID-19 cases, raising the active tally to 262,997.(MNS)

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